FJERDE KVARTAL 2002: 13.december  [10:10] ®®®®®®®®®®  <  >

Før og efter krigen: Olien under Saddam

 

 

 

9. DEN IRAKISKE OLIEFAKTOR

Det vil være naivt at tro, at "olie knapt nok har været et tema i den amerikanske administrations overvejelser om Irak", således som Patrick Clawson fra Washington Institute for Near East Policy lod forstå ved konferencen The Day After: Planning for a Post-Saddam Iraq, som American Enterprise Institute arrangerede i begyndelsen af oktober. Det bør imidlertid ikke føre til, at man i stedet reducerer den tilspidsede konflikt mellem Irak og USA til at være et rent olieanliggende.

Udover at der også forekommer at være mere og andet end olie på spil, er der meget der taler for, at de amerikanske olieinteresser, herunder Bush-regeringens egne privatøkonomiske interesser, er langt mere tvetydige end, hvad Bush-regeringens kritikere giver indtryk af. Det kan derfor godt være korrekt, når Lawrence Goldstein fra den amerikanske Petroleum Industry Research Foundation erklærer, at "hvis vi går i krig, handler det ikke primært om olie".

Under alle omstændigheder er der meget der tyder på, at uanset om den store amerikanske beredvillighed til at gå i krig for at gennemtvinge et regimeskifte i Irak i virkeligheden henter sit rationale i olieinteresser eller ej, vil en eventuel militær konfrontation mellem USA og Irak på den ene eller anden vis vil få konsekvenser for det internationale oliemarked - og dermed for verdensøkonomien. Det bliver interessant at se, om Goldstein får ret i sin efterfølgende kommentar - her bemærkede han nemlig, at "efter Saddam, kommer det hele imidlertid til at handle om olie".

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Kilder:

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Middle East Report, no 220 Autumn 2001

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Stable Oil Prices Likely to Become a War Casualty, New York Times, 2. October 2002

Telhami, S. & Hill, F.: Does Saudi Arabia Still Matter? Differing Perspectives on the Kingdom and its oil, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2002

"The Day After: Planning for a Post-Saddam Iraq", transcript fra konference arrangeret af The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 3. oktober 2002 (http://www.aei.org/past_event/conf021003a.htm)

Venezuela says no to Arab oil blockade, BBC World, 18. October 2002 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2333607.stm)

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What War would do to the Economy, Business Week, 23.September 2002